Forecasting outcomes before they happen.
We study whether outcomes can be forecast before they happen, measured against what follows, and improved by the evidence that accumulates.
Modelling Signals & Outcomes, Vol. 01October 2026
Before the Outcome
Forecasting the outcomes of communication before they happen, and keeping a record that can be checked.
Ejder Demir
What we found
13 vs 3
Top-ranked messages were answered far more often.
Of the 19 messages ranked highest, 13 were answered. Of the 19 ranked lowest, 3. This shows the ranking carries information about outcomes, not that acting on a forecast changes them.
78 real emails, one sender
0.708
Better than chance, and significant.
Area under the ROC curve, 95% interval 0.59 to 0.82. A one-line prompt to the same frontier model reaches 0.700, so the method is not better than the model. The signal is in the model. The record is not.
Labels shuffled 10,000 times, p = 0.001
0 → 63%
Reply rates rose at every step of the scale.
From very unlikely to very likely, each step was answered more often than the one below it. Two steps hold only three messages each, so the order there is suggestive, not established.
See Fig. 3 below
No skill
As probabilities, the scores add nothing.
Read as percentages, model scores are no more accurate than quoting the base rate. Models rank well and price badly, so Finalit reports steps, never percentages, until outcomes have earned them.
Brier skill +0.03 and −0.08
Fig. 3Observed reply rate by step
0%
24%
33%
44%
63%
Very unlikely
0 of 3
Unlikely
5 of 21
Even
1 of 3
Likely
19 of 43
Very likely
5 of 8
The record
Every forecast is sealed the moment it is made.
A forecast checked after the fact is only worth something if it demonstrably existed, unchanged, before the outcome was known.
Since 11 October 2026, every forecast Finalit makes is fingerprinted with SHA-256 at the moment it is logged, on server time, and what it predicted can no longer be changed through the product.
01then
Forecast
Event, step, frame
02then
Seal
SHA-256, server time
03last
Outcome
Scored only against an earlier seal
Publications
Oct 2026
Before the Outcome
Modelling Signals & Outcomes, Vol. 01. Ejder Demir.
Read →
Oct 2026
Sealing every forecast
Methods note. Finalit Research.
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Oct 2026
How we test a change to the forecaster
Methods note. Finalit Research.
Read →
Every number on this page comes from our reports, with its sample and interval. We publish the limits of each study alongside its results: the first rests on 78 emails from one sender, and says so.